23-24

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Mar 29, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Over the last 36 hours it has snowed 10-16” (1.1-2.0” of </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/snowpack/snowpack-observat… water equivalent</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Strong winds yesterday drifted this new snow into slabs that will be easily triggered today. Either simply avoid these drifts or check to make sure they’re well bonded to the old snow surface before getting onto steeper slopes. Small, steep test slopes can be a great way to safely assess these surface instabilities (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/small-skier-triggered-wind-slab">…; of a small windslab I triggered yesterday near Cooke City). Recent avalanches or shooting cracks are clear signs of unstable drifts that mean steep wind-loaded slopes are ready to avalanche.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>These wind slabs could be several feet thick by themselves and plenty dangerous, but would also be a good trigger for huge avalanches breaking on the weak layers at the bottom of the somepack. It’s been a bit since we’ve last seen one of these slides breaking deeper, but the loading over the last week with yesterday’s additional snow on top makes us a bit nervous about the possibility today (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGZxS-K8u3o"><span><span><span><strong>… Rind video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Assessing these deeper weak layers is much more difficult than assessing the surface instabilities. The best management strategy is picking slopes on the lower angled and smaller end of the spectrum with less obstacles or terrain traps beneath them.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>If the sun pops through the clouds, loose wet avalanches will quickly become a concern and with plenty of new snow and crusts beneath it they could be good sized and run far.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Our concerns are generally similar around Bozeman and Big Sky, but with less new snow wind drifts will be a bit thinner and triggering an avalanche is a bit less likely. On many slopes the wind drifts that formed yesterday will have bonded well to the old snow surface, but be on the lookout for thicker drifts and those that aren’t bonded as well. Be on your toes if the sun pops out as the new snow will quickly become wet and start to sluff on steep terrain. Keep your terrain choices in check as deeper slides also aren’t totally out of the question today.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Remember that even shallow avalanches can be dangerous in the wrong spot (especially above cliffs where just getting knocked off your feet could have big consequences).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.

snowpit near Cooke City, from this morning

Date
Activity
Skiing

From email: "Snowpit from this morning:  SE aspect, 9250'.  

It snowed all day in Cooke (S2), mild temps, light westerly winds." 

 

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
COOKE CITY
Observer Name
Beau Fredlund

Small Skier Triggered Wind Slab, Cooke City

Round Lake
Cooke City
Code
SS-AS-R1-D1-I
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.07450
Longitude
-109.90700
Notes

On a steep roll, the second skier in our group triggered a small wind slab avalanche. This avalanche was 15-20' wide, 8" deep, and ran for about 30-40 vertical feet. The skier easily skied away from the slide and was not caught. 

 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Skier
R size
1
D size
1
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
8.0 inches
Vertical Fall
30ft
Slab Width
19.97ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

We triggered this small avalanche on a steep windloaded rollover on an otherwise mellow slope. This avalanche was 15-20' wide, 8" deep, and ran for about 30-40 vertical feet. The skier easily skied away from the slide and was not caught. Photo: GNFAC

Cooke City, 2024-03-28

We Triggered a Small Avalanche

Date
Activity
Skiing
Snowmobiling

Today, we skied near the wilderness boundary north of Round Lake. On a wind-loaded test slope at the top of our second ski run, we were able to get recent drifts to crack, but not avalanche. Slightly further down on a steep roll the second skier in our group triggered a small wind slab avalanche. This avalanche was 15-20' wide, 8" deep, and ran for about 30-40 vertical feet. The skier easily skied away from the slide and was not caught. 

Winds remained mostly calm but increased by the end of the day. Snowfall through the day was enough to partially cover our morning tracks and we found 2" of snow on our snowmobiles at the end of the day. 

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
Round Lake
Observer Name
Zach Peterson

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Mar 28, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Wind-loading is the main avalanche concern in the Bridger and northern Gallatin Ranges. Fresh wind slab avalanches yesterday are a sign of what will occur again today; no Ouija board is required.&nbsp; Skiers in Frazier Basin saw many slides (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31646"><span><span><span><strong><span…;) and Dave saw wind pluming snow off the ridge and recent avalanche activity in Argentina Bowl and near Saddle Peak (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/xuIkWhy1jvM?feature=share"><span><span><span…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31633"><span><span><span><strong><span… and photos</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Snow will start to fall this morning and wind will continue loading slopes. Seek sheltered terrain and avoid terrain traps. Even shallow avalanches can be dangerous.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all others. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Around Big Sky and all ranges south, new snow and wind-loading are the main avalanche concerns. Ian is in Cooke City and made a </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/sHMnKlFFrMI?feature=share"><span><span><span…; standing in an 8’ deep pit, a visual treat given the low snow year (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31641"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). He explains how new snow and wind are creating instability in the upper 1+ foot of the snowpack (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/windslabs-north-cooke-city"><span>… 1</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/small-windslab-zimmer-creek"><span… 2</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>) and how the weaker, faceted snow near the ground is more difficult to trigger, but not impossible. Rocks sticking out in starting zones indicate shallow areas where a person could trigger a large and deadly slide.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today is a day of active loading and the snowpack will be most sensitive to triggering, both naturally and by people. Wind is blowing at all elevations loading slopes. The weight of the new snow is starting to add up over the last 5 days (1” of </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/snowpack/snowpack-observat… water equivalent</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>) and today is a day to travel wisely and conservatively. It is not always possible to identify exactly which slope or part of a slope has been wind-loaded, especially with poor visibility. Dangerous avalanche conditions are back. Be careful getting near avalanche terrain and be especially mindful of terrain traps.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.